Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EE 0xeea9…3a9a other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$7 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days−$6
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$1
crypto 18% +$2
world 10% −$3
sports 2% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +35.8% +22.9% 100% 50% +17.2%
≤30d 7 -3.8% -12.9% 57% 43% -10.8%
≤90d 7 -3.8% -12.9% 57% 43% -10.8%
all 13 -21.9% -29.4% 31% 23% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 23% -13.4%
10% -36.1% 23% -21.7%
15% -42.3% 23% -29.3%
20% -48.0% 15% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage132d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 +$2 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 +$9 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $14 −$3 -23%
Will Paul Dahl win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election? Feb 20 $0 $0 -41%
Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec Feb 20 $0 $0 -73%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 20 Feb 20 $0 $0 -20%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Feb 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $24 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 13d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 14d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY Israel 63¢ $6 117d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY Israel 67¢ $8 117d
Will Paul Dahl win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election? SELL Yes $0 125d
Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec SELL Yes $0 125d
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 20 SELL Yes $0 125d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 52¢ $1 125d
Will Paul Dahl win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election? BUY Yes $0 130d
Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec BUY Yes $0 130d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $0 130d
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 20 BUY Yes $0 130d
Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec BUY Yes $0 130d
Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec BUY Yes $0 130d
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 20 BUY Yes $0 130d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $1 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.10 · official $27.10 (match) · 27 history records