Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EE 0xeead…178d weather 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$217 (-1%) realized −$217 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate55%56W / 45L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$152
14 days+$108
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% +$124
sports 28% −$228
other 13% −$170
crypto 3% +$3
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.4% -9.1% 83% 48% -10.1%
≤30d 60 -2.7% -12.0% 82% 42% -10.3%
≤90d 62 -2.5% -11.8% 81% 40% -10.3%
all 101 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 25% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 25% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 8% -18.8%
15% -28.6% 4% -26.6%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$48 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses56 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage549d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 +$26 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 −$400 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $404 +$33 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $301 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $402 +$42 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $403 −$400 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $503 +$78 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $201 +$37 +18%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$84 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $401 +$33 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $224 −$161 -72%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$25 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $299 +$15 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$196 +96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $401 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $600 +$7 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $201 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $401 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,527 +$145 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $202 +$45 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $201 +$25 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $201 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $178 +$25 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $201 −$200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $202 +$37 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $201 +$29 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 27 $481 +$24 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $201 −$200 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? May 26 $202 +$61 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $122 +$16 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24? May 24 $403 +$68 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $281 −$280 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? May 24 $602 −$97 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on May 23? May 23 $346 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $91 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $201 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 23 $242 +$54 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $227 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $242 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $195 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 36h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 36h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $201 43h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $201 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 43h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $201 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $201 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $581 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $230 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 79¢ $202 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $434 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $401 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $59 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $126 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 283 history records