Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeeb2…ca8e other 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$16 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%33W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$813
7 days−$580
14 days+$134
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$585
sports 32% −$9
crypto 12% +$372
politics 5% +$35
tech 4% −$14
world 3% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -75.0% -77.4% 11% 11% -33.4%
≤30d 82 -35.5% -41.6% 20% 20% -6.3%
≤90d 87 -33.8% -40.1% 21% 21% -6.3%
all 139 -31.1% -37.7% 24% 22% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 22% -10.1%
10% -43.6% 21% -18.7%
15% -49.1% 20% -26.6%
20% -54.1% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$33 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses33 / 106
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions10
Markets (closed)139 / 149
History coverage580d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $206 +$266 +129%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -88%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $15 −$1 -7%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 22 $161 −$140 -87%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$25 -70%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$9 -58%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $45 −$33 -74%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$126 +62%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $48 −$35 -74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$19 -46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$98 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $18 +$25 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $78 1h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 12h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 38h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 39h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $5 39h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $12 39h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $25 40h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $20 40h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $15 40h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $22 40h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $7 40h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 26¢ $15 45h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 26¢ $31 45h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $25 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 10¢ $12 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $10 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $12 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $25 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $81 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.57 · official $85.59 (match) · 621 history records