Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EE 0xeeb3…51c8 world 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$428 (+1%) realized +$581 · open −$153
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%110W / 78L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$402
7 days+$1,334
14 days+$1,518
30 days+$1,097
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$224
finance 15% −$67
sports 15% +$1,313
tech 15% +$207
other 12% −$867
crypto 7% +$277
weather 4% −$154
economics 0% −$51
culture 0% +$10
politics 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 52% +10.4%
≤30d 44 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 50% -1.4%
≤90d 138 -5.0% -14.1% 62% 36% -5.1%
all 188 -9.9% -18.5% 59% 31% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 31% -7.4%
10% -26.3% 15% -16.3%
15% -33.4% 10% -24.4%
20% -39.9% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$53 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$2,187
Realized+$581
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses110 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions11
Markets (closed)188 / 199
History coverage108d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 83¢ 97¢ $249 $291 +$42 (+17%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 59¢ 66¢ $255 $286 +$31 (+12%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $270 $268 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $268 $266 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 68¢ 64¢ $279 $264 −$14 (-5%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $187 $182 −$5 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 60¢ 40¢ $240 $158 −$82 (-34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $158 $146 −$12 (-8%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 45¢ 24¢ $225 $118 −$108 (-48%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $115 −$5 (-4%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 89¢ 93¢ $89 $93 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $121 −$47 -39%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $129 +$91 +70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $291 −$286 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $268 +$240 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $454 −$178 -39%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $247 +$173 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $191 −$187 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $305 +$215 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $311 +$149 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $306 +$234 +76%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $229 +$201 +88%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra Jun 19 $420 +$73 +17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $160 −$25 -16%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 19 $99 −$68 -68%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $406 +$194 +48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $150 +$150 +100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $113 −$111 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $292 +$128 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $74 −$72 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $156 +$10 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $271 −$13 -5%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 16 $306 −$97 -32%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $579 +$634 +110%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $259 +$137 +53%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $530 +$67 +13%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? Jun 14 $225 −$111 -49%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $577 +$83 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $52 +$8 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $320 +$308 +96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $210 +$70 +33%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $19 −$15 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $320 −$32 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $435 +$62 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $639 +$250 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $377 −$130 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 25 $266 +$35 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $225 −$9 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $212 −$212 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $336 +$101 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $972 −$268 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 22 $267 −$4 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 22 $294 −$33 -11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $171 +$20 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 18 $163 −$17 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $118 +$7 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 17 $113 −$8 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $75 56m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $121 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 68¢ $281 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $129 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $272 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $291 7h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $268 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 35¢ $182 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $255 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $74 24h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $272 24h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $247 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $191 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $305 33h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 36h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $89 36h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $271 36h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $143 36h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 63¢ $26 37h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 63¢ $121 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $311 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $306 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 53¢ $164 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 53¢ $65 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra SELL No 99¢ $493 2d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 55¢ $95 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $0 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 68¢ $91 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,187.26 · official $2,187.26 (match) · 910 history records