Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeeb9…3cb6 weather 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate19%20W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$13
other 4% +$2
culture 3% +$2
politics 3% +$2
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.3% -7.4% 55% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 37 +1.4% -8.3% 30% 3% -8.4%
≤90d 103 -24.5% -31.7% 19% 1% -10.1%
all 103 -24.5% -31.7% 19% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 1% -10.1%
10% -38.3% 0% -18.7%
15% -44.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -49.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses20 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage58d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 30? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 27 $12 +$1 +8%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 3 May 19 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 17? May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 16? May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 15? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el May 08 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 6? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 99¢ $13 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 90¢ $12 11h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $15 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $14 47h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL No 99¢ $12 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY No 98¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $11 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $13 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $12 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 321 history records