Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeeba…2d08 sports 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%14W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$5
other 24% −$5
politics 20% −$3
economics 8% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 198 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses14 / 184
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage170d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $164 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 26 $24 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 12 $365 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $71 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 06 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 26 $156 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 26 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $241 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $266 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $34 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 7d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $36 20d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $36 21d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 28d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 28d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 36d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $35 99d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 97¢ $35 99d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $24 99d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $24 100d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $26 100d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $22 100d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $5 100d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $30 100d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $31 100d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $25 100d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $25 100d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $26 100d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $26 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 96¢ $25 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $25 101d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $27 101d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $27 101d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $29 102d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 96¢ $30 102d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 96¢ $10 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.21 · official $34.21 (match) · 775 history records