Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EE 0xeebd…1911 other 105 markets active 19h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$179 (-0%) realized −$179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%18W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$698per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$37
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$37
other 34% −$122
sports 13% +$90
world 3% −$113
economics 3% −$2
culture 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 40 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 105 +2.2% -7.5% 17% 13% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 13% -9.8%
10% -16.4% 13% -18.4%
15% -24.4% 12% -26.3%
20% -31.8% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$864) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$10 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses18 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage131d
Avg bet$698
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $939 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,332 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $1,674 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $787 −$1 -0%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $508 −$22 -4%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,937 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $398 +$1 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,763 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $826 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $729 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2,370 −$3 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,593 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,788 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $444 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $445 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $454 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $2,329 −$2 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $1,868 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $2,859 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $648 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $2,373 −$2 -0%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 26 $77 +$35 +45%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $459 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $643 −$1 -0%
Will EdgeX launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $726 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $859 18h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $860 21h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $937 35h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $939 38h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $847 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $848 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $850 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $851 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $956 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $957 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $785 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $787 8d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 89¢ $165 9d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $321 9d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $508 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $645 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $645 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $884 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $885 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $862 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $863 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $865 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $866 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $889 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $768 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $769 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $711 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records