Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xeec0…2175 crypto 25 markets active 2d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$66 (-45%) realized −$63 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$68
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$54
other 26% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -58.0% -62.0% 7% 0% -55.4%
≤30d 24 -53.0% -57.5% 4% 0% -56.9%
≤90d 24 -53.0% -57.5% 4% 0% -56.9%
all 24 -53.0% -57.5% 4% 0% -56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.5% 0% -56.9%
10% -61.5% 0% -61.0%
15% -65.3% 0% -64.8%
20% -68.7% 0% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage26d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$3 -34%
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 15 $9 −$6 -68%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -35%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -86%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -91%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -48%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 08 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $19 −$16 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -89%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 25 $6 −$2 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 3¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 3¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 4¢ $5 2d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 4¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 4d
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.85 · official $2.85 (match) · 71 history records