Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeec3…c2a0 other 322 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,023 (-2%) realized −$3,037 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%230W / 162L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$183
14 days+$31
30 days−$1,079
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$2,216
crypto 2% −$39
weather 1% −$688
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -34.0% -40.3% 14% 4% -11.4%
≤30d 227 -13.2% -21.4% 56% 30% -12.1%
≤90d 335 -9.8% -18.4% 56% 30% -12.7%
all 392 +10.4% -0.1% 59% 31% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 31% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 16% -19.9%
15% -18.4% 10% -27.6%
20% -26.4% 8% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$88 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$783
Realized−$3,037
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses230 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)392 / 322
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$481
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $769 $783 +$14 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 −$12 -86026%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +8218%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 −$10 -70737%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 −$27 -198437%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $43 +$25 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 +$5 +37827%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $55 54m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $257 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $87 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $68 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $15 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $67 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $287 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $76 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $22 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $47 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $67 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $58 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $295 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 34h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 34h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $217 34h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 34h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 34h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $187 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782.60 · official $781.77 (match) · 3500 history records