Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xeec3…6bd2 sports 274 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$855 (-10%) realized −$974 · open +$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%85W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$70
30 days−$624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$897
other 10% −$13
politics 2% +$51
world 1% −$5
culture 0% −$8
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 192 -6.3% -15.2% 29% 29% -19.0%
≤90d 273 -9.0% -17.7% 31% 31% -20.4%
all 273 -9.0% -17.7% 31% 31% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 31% -20.4%
10% -25.6% 31% -28.1%
15% -32.8% 30% -35.0%
20% -39.4% 28% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$21 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized−$974
Unrealized+$119
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses85 / 188
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions1
Markets (closed)273 / 274
History coverage43d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $339 $458 +$119 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $355 −$350 -99%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $75 +$299 +397%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $79 −$4 -4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $51 −$27 -53%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $51 −$27 -53%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $51 −$40 -78%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $51 −$32 -63%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $232 −$228 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $51 +$49 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $51 −$27 -53%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $30 −$29 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $51 −$40 -80%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $51 −$26 -51%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $51 −$33 -64%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $51 +$110 +216%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $51 +$49 +97%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $51 −$27 -53%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $51 −$20 -39%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $51 +$49 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $51 −$25 -50%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $51 −$36 -72%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $51 −$25 -49%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $51 −$32 -62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $51 −$41 -80%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $51 −$34 -67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $51 −$26 -50%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $51 −$22 -42%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $51 −$36 -71%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $51 −$27 -53%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $51 +$53 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $51 −$13 -26%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $51 +$58 +114%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $51 +$60 +119%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $51 +$68 +134%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $51 −$28 -55%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $51 −$27 -54%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $51 −$28 -56%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $51 −$34 -67%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $51 −$36 -71%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $51 −$28 -55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $51 −$35 -69%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $25 +$28 +109%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $25 +$29 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $153 +$267 +174%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $25 −$15 -61%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $25 +$25 +97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $25 −$16 -63%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $342 2h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $355 10d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 20¢ $75 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $75 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $79 14d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 21¢ $24 15d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 23¢ $24 15d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Washington Nationals 10¢ $11 15d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 17¢ $19 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $25 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $25 15d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 43¢ $51 15d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $51 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 46¢ $46 15d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $100 15d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $51 15d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $51 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 37¢ $29 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $24 15d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL New York Yankees 23¢ $24 15d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $26 15d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 10¢ $10 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 20¢ $25 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $51 16d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $51 16d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 47¢ $51 16d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $51 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $56 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.70 · official $457.70 (match) · 579 history records