Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EE 0xeec5…b6fe world 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$66,646 (+31%) realized +$66,434 · open +$212
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate77%194W / 57L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$707per market
Trades / day83.9pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$28,277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$13,569
other 29% +$4,972
sports 16% +$1,877
politics 8% +$1,053
economics 3% +$173
tech 2% −$77
crypto 1% +$110
culture 0% −$55
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -12.9% -21.2% 69% 31% -7.0%
≤30d 220 -0.5% -10.0% 77% 37% +0.1%
≤90d 251 +18.7% +7.4% 77% 38% +2.8%
all 251 +18.7% +7.4% 77% 38% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 38% +2.8%
10% -2.9% 20% -7.1%
15% ← realistic here -12.3% 11% -16.0%
20% -20.9% 8% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$591) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$112 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.4 per $1 lost it wins $4.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$28,277
Realized+$66,434
Unrealized+$212
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses194 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions50
Markets (closed)251 / 300
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$707
Trades / day83.9
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 71¢ 78¢ $3,166 $3,440 +$273 (+9%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 84¢ 87¢ $2,210 $2,278 +$68 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,188 $2,274 +$85 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $2,254 $2,173 −$80 (-4%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 86¢ 91¢ $1,961 $2,071 +$110 (+6%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 89¢ 90¢ $2,013 $2,038 +$25 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,731 $1,820 +$89 (+5%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $1,659 $1,607 −$52 (-3%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 83¢ 83¢ $1,478 $1,489 +$11 (+1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 75¢ 83¢ $1,212 $1,345 +$133 (+11%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 76¢ 79¢ $1,091 $1,136 +$45 (+4%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $682 $739 +$57 (+8%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $645 $644 −$1 (-0%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $551 $587 +$35 (+6%)
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $511 $545 +$34 (+7%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $495 $499 +$4 (+1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $463 $484 +$21 (+5%)
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $398 $402 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $279 $274 −$5 (-2%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? No 88¢ 88¢ $264 $262 −$2 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $243 $245 +$2 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $188 $200 +$12 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $193 $199 +$6 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $189 $180 −$8 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 70¢ 86¢ $140 $173 +$33 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $90 +$14 +16%
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 28 $42 +$8 +18%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $868 +$79 +9%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $40 −$6 -14%
Will Uruguay (16) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 28 $43 +$5 +11%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 27 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 27 $6 −$4 -67%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? Jun 27 $325 +$57 +18%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 27 $403 +$6 +2%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Jun 27 $80 +$92 +115%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Jun 27 $637 +$19 +3%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $985 −$985 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 27 $44 +$6 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$8 +21%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $427 +$36 +8%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 27 $6 −$4 -67%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 27 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -50%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 +$2 +4%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $131 +$29 +22%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? Jun 27 $93 +$5 +5%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $672 +$24 +4%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $201 +$32 +16%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 26 $456 +$19 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 26 $389 +$7 +2%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $50 −$44 -89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $768 +$72 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 26 $820 +$31 +4%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $201 +$53 +27%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $553 +$127 +23%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $225 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $2,592 +$114 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- Jun 24 $2,711 +$190 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 24 $99 +$11 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 24 $73 +$24 +33%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $197 −$152 -77%
NBA: 1st Overall Pick in 2026 Draft to be Traded? Jun 24 $218 +$5 +2%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $821 +$167 +20%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $2,540 +$224 +9%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $996 +$104 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $156 +$30 +19%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $59 +$4 +8%
Will Caleb Wilson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $60 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $69 20m
US x China tariff agreement by July 31? BUY No 63¢ $15 23m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $15 24m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 26m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 27m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 27m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 28m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 28m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $136 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $212 51m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $172 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $52 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $810 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $305 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $35 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $90 2h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $45 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $10 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $50 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $40 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $502 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $368 6h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $276 8h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $500 11h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $600 12h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $15 14h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,277.43 · official $28,277.45 (match) · 3500 history records