Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EE 0xeec5…1862 world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6,571 (-22%) realized −$5,731 · open −$840
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,652per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$6,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,674
7 days+$1,674
14 days+$1,674
30 days+$1,674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$9,678
other 19% +$1,388
sports 4% +$1,665
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +334.8% +293.4% 100% 100% +293.4%
≤30d 1 +334.8% +293.4% 100% 100% +293.4%
≤90d 1 +334.8% +293.4% 100% 100% +293.4%
all 13 +65.2% +49.5% 69% 62% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.5% 62% -30.9%
10% +35.2% 54% -37.5%
15% +22.1% 46% -43.6%
20% +10.2% 46% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +335% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,316 vs −$4,408 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$6,309
Realized−$5,731
Unrealized−$840
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage174d
Avg bet$1,652
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $3,000 $2,217 −$783 (-26%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $750 $763 +$13 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $500 $440 −$60 (-12%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $225 $225 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $532 +$1,674 +315%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $2,500 +$7,460 +298%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jan 22 $100 +$13 +13%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 22 $100 +$59 +59%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of January? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 16 $600 −$600 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $1,900 +$16 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $500 +$394 +79%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $250 +$67 +27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $14,530 −$14,528 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $500 +$647 +130%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $500 +$1,513 +302%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $238 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $531 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $528 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $529 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $264 32h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $532 32h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 17¢ $3,125 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2,500 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,960 113d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $113 151d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $159 151d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of January? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 155d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 21¢ $500 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 21¢ $500 157d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 21¢ $500 157d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 37¢ $500 158d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,916 158d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 35¢ $500 158d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $894 159d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $317 160d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of January? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 161d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $500 162d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $500 162d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,000 162d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $300 163d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $250 163d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $500 163d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 163d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,309.27 · official $6,309.27 (match) · 58 history records