Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeecd…4fef sports 995 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$33,486 (-31%) realized −$33,448 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%543W / 450L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$933est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 133d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$2,832
crypto 6% −$966
other 0% −$181
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 46% -21.1%
≤30d 354 +3.6% -6.2% 55% 51% -11.5%
≤90d 756 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 51% -11.9%
all 993 +3.4% -6.4% 55% 50% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 50% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 43% -21.1%
15% -23.5% 36% -28.8%
20% -31.0% 27% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$69 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$33,448
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses543 / 450
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$933
Open positions2
Markets (closed)993 / 995
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$110
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 993 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 30¢ $34 $25 −$9 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 36¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$15 +104%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $32 −$18 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +190%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $14 −$13 -92%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $145 −$126 -87%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $110 +$35 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $68 +$42 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $38 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $45 +$34 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$20 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$17 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$27 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$13 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$8 +121%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $17 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $222 −$140 -63%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$10 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +111%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $34 −$30 -86%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $362 −$111 -31%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $262 −$12 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $487 −$236 -48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $143 +$356 +250%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $55 +$88 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$40 +269%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $16 −$13 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $34 −$18 -55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $17 −$15 -90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $17 −$13 -76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $34 +$52 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $34 26m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $14 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 5¢ $14 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $14 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $0 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $0 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $12 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $2 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $0 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $0 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $0 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $2 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $0 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $14 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $18 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3¢ $19 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $145 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $110 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $68 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $45 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $45 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 84¢ $38 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.76 · official $25.18 (match) · 3500 history records