Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeece…4c4e politics 29 markets active 9h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-0%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$179
other 6% −$2
economics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -1.5% -10.8% 4% 0% -10.2%
all 28 -1.5% -10.8% 4% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$986) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage71d
Avg bet$882
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,797 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,782 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $814 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $257 −$53 -21%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $873 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $565 −$95 -17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $986 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $986 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,976 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $988 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 32h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $805 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $806 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $806 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $807 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $808 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $809 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $807 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $809 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $809 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $810 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $807 21d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $808 22d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $807 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $809 24d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $811 25d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $812 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $816 28d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $817 29d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $814 30d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $814 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $818 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $819 33d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $818 34d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $819 35d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 36d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $820 37d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $203 38d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $257 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.13 · official $43.24 (match) · 109 history records