Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xeed0…b1e3 crypto 1620 markets active 15h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate86%1404W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$31
14 days−$28
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
sports 0% −$1
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -44.3% -49.6% 50% 22% -24.4%
≤30d 110 -10.9% -19.4% 78% 49% -9.3%
≤90d 991 -0.8% -10.3% 83% 57% -9.6%
all 1635 -0.8% -10.2% 86% 41% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 41% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1404 / 231
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1635 / 1620
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1635 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1642%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1654%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -922%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1012%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -802%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1724%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1654%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1037%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -654%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 92¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 95¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 98¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records