Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

EE 0xeed1…4277 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$29 (+13%) realized +$26 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day6.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)-0.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+10.2%	-0.3%	71%	71%	+18.3%
≤30d	7	+10.2%	-0.3%	71%	71%	+18.3%
≤90d	7	+10.2%	-0.3%	71%	71%	+18.3%
all	7	+10.2%	-0.3%	71%	71%	+18.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.3%	71%	+18.3%
10%	-9.9%	57%	+7.0%
15%	-18.6%	43%	-3.3%
20%	-26.5%	43%	-12.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.65 per $1 lost it wins $3.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$133

Realized+$26

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day6.4

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	66¢	$130	$133	+$3 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$2	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$20	+$13	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$10	+101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$16	+$5	+29%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$61	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$20	25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$20	25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	42h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	42h
Qatar to score first vs. Canada?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$16	42h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.19 · official $133.19 (match) · 15 history records