Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:44:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xeed2…eac8 world 18 markets active 20h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$19
sports 41% +$42
other 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 56% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 17 -4.3% -13.4% 53% 0% -8.5%
all 18 -9.6% -18.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -9.2%
10% -26.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -33.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -39.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage90d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $364 −$4 -1%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 23 $365 $0 +0%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 17 $260 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group May 29 $457 +$33 +7%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? May 27 $451 −$19 -4%
Spread: Nice (-2.5) May 27 $462 +$18 +4%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? May 26 $445 +$2 +0%
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-1.5) May 26 $441 +$19 +4%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? May 25 $442 −$5 -1%
Spread: HUS Agadir (-2.5) May 08 $471 +$29 +6%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 07 $471 $0 +0%
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5) May 07 $460 +$10 +2%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? May 02 $470 −$4 -1%
Spread: Mantova 1911 (-1.5) May 02 $447 +$23 +5%
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? May 01 $448 −$2 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $300 +$10 +3%
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) Mar 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $360 20h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $364 21h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $365 22h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $365 22h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $263 6d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $260 6d
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group BUY BESTIA 93¢ $457 27d
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $432 27d
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $451 27d
Spread: Nice (-2.5) BUY Saint-Etienne 96¢ $462 28d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $448 28d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $445 28d
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-1.5) BUY Tromsø IL 96¢ $441 29d
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $437 29d
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $442 29d
Spread: HUS Agadir (-2.5) BUY Difaâ Hassani El Jadida 94¢ $471 47d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $471 47d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $471 47d
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5) BUY Villarreal CF 98¢ $460 52d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $466 52d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $470 52d
Spread: Mantova 1911 (-1.5) BUY AC Monza 95¢ $447 53d
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? SELL No 91¢ $447 53d
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? BUY No 91¢ $448 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $150 59d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 59d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $23 59d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $115 59d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $160 59d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records