Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xeed2…df79 crypto 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+10%) realized +$164 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%50W / 106L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$62
14 days+$86
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$23
sports 35% +$214
other 11% +$56
world 6% −$31
finance 4% $0
politics 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +152.1% +128.1% 73% 45% +6.9%
≤30d 43 +68.8% +52.8% 51% 40% +13.1%
≤90d 154 +6.5% -3.7% 32% 27% -0.4%
all 156 +6.9% -3.3% 32% 28% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 28% +4.5%
10% -12.5% 25% -5.5%
15% -21.0% 24% -14.6%
20% -28.7% 21% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses50 / 106
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)156 / 199
History coverage114d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 73¢ 82¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+13%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 34¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 23¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 34¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+127%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $117 +$2 +2%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $106 +$8 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end Jun 27 $1 +$8 +797%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A Jun 24 $3 +$16 +524%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $4 +$21 +510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a dr Jun 22 $1 +$16 +1590%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +159%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Hughes vs. Vergiev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $5 +$14 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $39 +$13 +34%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? May 24 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 23 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 23 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Canada win on 202 BUY 17¢ $2 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND BUY 12¢ $4 15h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Austria win on 2026- BUY 12¢ $2 36h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 4¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $114 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.97 · official $96.64 · 397 history records