Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xeed3…fa3c other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$17
politics 28% −$11
sports 11% +$54
crypto 5% −$2
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 147 +1.1% -8.5% 11% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 7% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×10.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage131d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $352 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $143 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $370 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 23 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $187 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $311 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $164 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $378 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $206 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $344 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $378 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $149 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $391 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $392 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $189 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 02 $160 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $342 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $146 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $204 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $160 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $319 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $170 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $373 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $192 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $190 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $194 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $31 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $31 39h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $21 18d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $21 18d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $149 26d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $149 26d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $173 26d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $173 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $143 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $143 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $189 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $189 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $203 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $204 28d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $187 29d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $187 29d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 29d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 458 history records