Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeed7…38a6 world 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 50L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$5
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$20
politics 16% −$1
other 16% −$1
sports 10% −$10
economics 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 34 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 76 +0.0% -9.5% 39% 3% -9.1%
all 89 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.3%
10% -19.7% 4% -18.0%
15% -27.4% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage534d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $86 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $76 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $158 −$10 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $64 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $121 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $60 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $175 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $119 +$28 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $60 −$3 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 −$1 -35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 +$2 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $75 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $71 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $75 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $54 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $23 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $31 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $35 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $20 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $14 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $51 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $54 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $47 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $27 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $44 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $36 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $13 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 384 history records