Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeed8…82f3 sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+13%) realized +$135 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$62
14 days+$137
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$16
other 40% +$102
crypto 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.4% -7.4% 33% 33% +3.7%
≤30d 31 -5.9% -14.8% 32% 32% +8.2%
≤90d 31 -5.9% -14.8% 32% 32% +8.2%
all 31 -5.9% -14.8% 32% 32% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 32% +8.2%
10% -23.0% 32% -2.2%
15% -30.4% 26% -11.6%
20% -37.2% 26% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$8 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage12d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals Yes 18¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Yes 10¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes 22¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $36 +$44 +123%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $147 +$36 +24%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $4 +$24 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $14 +$17 +118%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 +$50 +109%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $10 +$16 +161%
Zhizhen Zhang vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -8%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Jaqueline Cristian vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $9 +$12 +134%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $16 +$30 +185%
Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 10 $60 +$52 +87%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $37 −$1 -4%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $55 −$17 -31%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $88 +$27 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Hungary vs. Finland end in a draw? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Noni Madueke: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $5 27m
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $79 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $5 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $36 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 19¢ $10 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 20¢ $15 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $147 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026 BUY 11¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 37¢ $28 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 25¢ $10 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Will Sweden w BUY $10 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $46 5d
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan BUY Katie Swan 38¢ $10 5d
Zhizhen Zhang vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $16 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 16¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.62 · official $5.62 (match) · 59 history records