Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EE 0xeee3…9acc world 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d

RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$490 (+20%) realized +$490 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +115% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +95% what you keep after slip

Net edge+95%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate40%6W / 9L

Drawdown51%max

Avg bet$154per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$6

14 days−$8

30 days−$482

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)+94.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-7.9%	-16.7%	0%	0%	-14.9%
≤30d	9	-13.4%	-21.7%	22%	0%	-29.0%
≤90d	15	+115.4%	+94.9%	40%	20%	+8.6%
all	15	+115.4%	+94.9%	40%	20%	+8.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+94.9%	20%	+8.6%
10%	+76.2%	13%	-1.8%
15%	+59.2%	7%	-11.3%
20%	+43.6%	7%	-20.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +115% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +265% → late -15% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$167 vs −$86 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized+$490

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses6 / 9

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage74d

Avg bet$154

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown51%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$32	$32	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	Jun 24	$65	$0	+0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	Jun 21	$38	−$6	-16%
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	Jun 15	$43	−$2	-4%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?	Jun 04	$62	$0	+0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	Jun 02	$94	−$5	-6%
StarCraft II: SKillous vs Strange - Map 1 Winner	May 28	$490	−$489	-100%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?	May 28	$491	+$2	+0%
Spread: Nice (-2.5)	May 28	$477	+$19	+4%
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31?	May 26	$474	$0	+0%
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5)	May 25	$50	+$960	+1900%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	May 24	$55	+$18	+33%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?	Apr 19	$49	+$2	+4%
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5)	Apr 15	$11	−$11	-100%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	Apr 15	$23	$0	-2%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30,	Apr 12	$8	+$1	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	BUY Yes	4¢	$16	58m
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	BUY Yes	4¢	$16	58m
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	8¢	$33	1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	8¢	$32	1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$32	2h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$33	2h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	SELL Yes	5¢	$3	2d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	SELL Yes	6¢	$13	2d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	SELL Yes	6¢	$16	2d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	BUY Yes	7¢	$20	3d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	BUY Yes	7¢	$19	3d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	8¢	$1	8d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	8¢	$21	8d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	8¢	$20	8d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	8d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$22	8d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?	SELL Yes	6¢	$31	19d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?	SELL Yes	6¢	$31	19d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?	BUY Yes	6¢	$31	19d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?	BUY Yes	6¢	$31	19d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	SELL Yes	9¢	$1	21d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	SELL Yes	9¢	$40	21d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	SELL Yes	9¢	$47	21d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	BUY Yes	9¢	$40	21d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	BUY Yes	10¢	$54	21d
StarCraft II: SKillous vs Strange - Map 1 Winner	BUY Strange	96¢	$490	26d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?	SELL No	95¢	$493	26d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?	BUY No	94¢	$491	26d
Spread: Nice (-2.5)	BUY Saint-Etienne	96¢	$477	28d
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31?	SELL No	93¢	$474	28d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.00 · official $32.00 (match) · 55 history records