Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EE 0xeeeb…1ede other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized +$95 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%44W / 73L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$49
other 28% +$7
politics 7% −$2
sports 7% −$1
economics 7% +$1
finance 2% +$3
tech 1% +$23
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 32 +1.3% -8.4% 34% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 43 +50.6% +36.3% 37% 7% -9.1%
all 117 +17.2% +6.0% 38% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 4% -9.1%
10% -4.1% 3% -17.8%
15% -13.4% 3% -25.8%
20% -21.9% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.28 per $1 lost it wins $5.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses44 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage464d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $192 $191 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $212 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $375 +$3 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $152 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $356 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $188 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $188 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $375 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $187 −$3 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $205 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $209 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $546 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $211 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $346 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $183 +$7 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $759 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$1 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $226 +$13 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $226 +$3 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $376 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $188 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $188 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $149 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $65 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $19 −$3 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $172 +$2 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $455 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $137 +$1 +1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $49 −$3 -7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $86 +$23 +26%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $964 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $974 +$38 +4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $929 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $1,023 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $1,022 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $929 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 23 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 23 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $138 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $54 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $212 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $212 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $143 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $190 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $137 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $14 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $142 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $168 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $168 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $123 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $144 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $164 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $207 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $108 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $74 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $188 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.43 · official $190.96 · 498 history records