Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

EE 0xeef4…1fcc sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$61 (+30%) realized +$32 · open +$29

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +127% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +90% what you keep after slip

Net edge+90%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+105.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+127.4%	+105.7%	60%	60%	+57.6%
≤30d	5	+127.4%	+105.7%	60%	60%	+57.6%
≤90d	5	+127.4%	+105.7%	60%	60%	+57.6%
all	5	+127.4%	+105.7%	60%	60%	+57.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+105.7%	60%	+57.6%
10%	+86.0%	60%	+42.5%
15%	+68.1%	60%	+28.8%
20%	+51.6%	60%	+16.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +74% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +127% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$29 vs −$7 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.46 per $1 lost it wins $6.46

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$131

Realized+$32

Unrealized+$29

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions5

Markets (closed)5 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Under	53¢	96¢	$20	$36	+$16 (+81%)
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	63¢	62¢	$32	$32	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Portugal	46¢	84¢	$16	$29	+$13 (+83%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	55¢	54¢	$19	$18	−$1 (-3%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Under	58¢	57¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 23	$30	+$18	+60%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 22	$30	−$7	-24%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$6	−$6	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$7	+$43	+596%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Jun 22	$24	+$26	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	58¢	$15	1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	46¢	$16	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	55¢	$19	1h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	63¢	$32	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	53¢	$20	1h
Spread: France (-2.5)	SELL France	44¢	$23	20h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$50	20h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$7	25h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	12¢	$6	25h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	48¢	$24	25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	62¢	$30	25h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	56¢	$30	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.60 · official $130.60 (match) · 15 history records