Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EE 0xeef6…cd4c sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$446 (-3%) realized −$347 · open −$99
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$819
7 days+$819
14 days+$819
30 days+$819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$558
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +43.8% +30.1% 83% 83% +47.9%
≤30d 6 +43.8% +30.1% 83% 83% +47.9%
≤90d 6 +43.8% +30.1% 83% 83% +47.9%
all 31 +2.3% -7.5% 58% 58% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 58% -12.8%
10% -16.3% 55% -21.1%
15% -24.4% 48% -28.7%
20% -31.8% 42% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$424 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$640
Realized−$347
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions6
Markets (closed)31 / 37
History coverage356d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Beşiktaş Esports 47¢ 48¢ $210 $212 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Esport Academy Copenhagen 34¢ 34¢ $164 $166 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group A Team Novaq 39¢ 24¢ $252 $152 −$100 (-40%)
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Ognjen Milic 40¢ 38¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-4%)
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Dplus vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season X-CAST 45¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $181 +$169 +93%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 25 $278 +$172 +62%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 25 $269 +$181 +67%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 25 $195 +$105 +54%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 25 $301 +$259 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $68 −$68 -100%
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimova Sep 05 $187 −$187 -100%
Yankees vs. Astros Sep 05 $140 +$46 +33%
Angels vs. Royals Sep 05 $131 −$131 -100%
Cowboys vs. Eagles Sep 05 $228 −$228 -100%
Brewers vs. Marlins Jul 06 $1,208 −$1,207 -100%
Red Sox vs. Nationals Jul 06 $225 +$61 +27%
Orioles vs. Braves Jul 06 $977 −$977 -100%
Pirates vs. Mariners Jul 06 $1,318 +$815 +62%
Sparks vs Fever Jul 06 $229 −$229 -100%
Giants vs. Athletics Jul 06 $530 −$441 -83%
Rangers vs. Padres Jul 06 $756 −$624 -83%
Astros vs. Dodgers Jul 06 $382 +$717 +188%
Tigers vs. Guardians Jul 06 $435 +$341 +78%
Cardinals vs. Cubs Jul 05 $320 −$320 -100%
Twins vs. Rays Jul 05 $485 −$485 -100%
Orioles vs. Braves Jul 05 $222 +$373 +168%
Brewers vs. Marlins Jul 05 $312 +$285 +91%
Angels vs. Blue Jays Jul 05 $379 +$169 +44%
Yankees vs. Mets Jul 05 $210 +$123 +59%
Royals vs. Diamondbacks Jul 05 $489 +$108 +22%
Rays vs. Twins Jul 05 $341 −$340 -100%
Royals vs. Diamondbacks Jul 05 $272 −$272 -100%
Giants vs. Athletics Jul 05 $856 +$427 +50%
Angels vs. Blue Jays Jul 05 $480 +$294 +61%
Yankees vs. Mets Jul 04 $450 +$407 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Ognjen Milic 40¢ $75 48m
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 53¢ $7 51m
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Beşiktaş Esports 47¢ $133 53m
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Ognjen Milic 40¢ $15 58m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 34¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 34¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 34¢ $71 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Beşiktaş Esports 47¢ $78 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 34¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 34¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 34¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Dplus vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 45¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Team Novaq 39¢ $257 1h
Valorant: Dplus vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 45¢ $1 2h
Valorant: Dplus vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 45¢ $1 2h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 53¢ $13 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $181 5h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 61¢ $278 5h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $269 8h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $68 9h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 65¢ $192 9h
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 65¢ $3 9h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $301 10h
US Open: Naomi Osaka vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Osaka 42¢ $187 293d
Yankees vs. Astros SELL Yankees 100¢ $186 293d
Angels vs. Royals BUY Angels 62¢ $131 293d
Yankees vs. Astros BUY Yankees 75¢ $140 293d
Cowboys vs. Eagles BUY Cowboys 38¢ $228 293d
Brewers vs. Marlins BUY Marlins 25¢ $338 353d
Red Sox vs. Nationals SELL Red Sox 92¢ $286 353d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $639.50 · official $639.54 (match) · 132 history records