Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xeef6…0fe3 other 33 markets active 8h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$342 (+10%) realized +$342 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$228
14 days+$300
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$469
sports 13% −$75
crypto 3% −$97
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.6% -1.7% 64% 64% +13.5%
≤30d 33 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 55% -1.8%
≤90d 33 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 55% -1.8%
all 33 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 55% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 55% -1.8%
10% -21.1% 42% -11.2%
15% -28.7% 30% -19.8%
20% -35.7% 21% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$50 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage26d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $112 +$61 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $87 +$25 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$64 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +207%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$33 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $122 +$53 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $697 +$138 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $102 +$29 +28%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $271 +$282 +104%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 −$199 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $302 +$92 +30%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $301 +$15 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $302 +$60 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $22 +$41 +185%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $19 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $112 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $34 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $34 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 98¢ $37 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 57¢ $75 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $165 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $50 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $134 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $20 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 59¢ $127 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $102 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $835 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 83¢ $697 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 7d
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 44¢ $131 7d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 95¢ $475 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records