Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xeef9…8731 sports 521 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,642 (-4%) realized −$1,719 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%292W / 222L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Fees−$551est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days−$337
14 days−$3,002
30 days−$1,617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$2,032
other 13% −$2,668
world 2% −$890
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +4.5% -5.4% 57% 54% -12.8%
≤30d 514 +6.1% -4.0% 57% 55% -12.7%
≤90d 514 +6.1% -4.0% 57% 55% -12.7%
all 514 +6.1% -4.0% 57% 55% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 55% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 54% -21.1%
15% -21.6% 51% -28.7%
20% -29.3% 44% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$84 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized−$1,719
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses292 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$551
Open positions7
Markets (closed)514 / 521
History coverage29d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? Under 59¢ 100¢ $79 $133 +$55 (+70%)
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) TEAM VISION 77¢ 76¢ $88 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Yellow Submarine 43¢ 100¢ $34 $80 +$46 (+132%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 42¢ 72¢ $37 $64 +$26 (+70%)
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Over 52¢ 50¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 43¢ 46¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+8%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner L1ga Team 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 24 $117 +$93 +79%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $142 +$97 +68%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 24 $42 +$38 +89%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $154 +$70 +46%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $145 −$145 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $220 +$27 +12%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $79 +$21 +26%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $206 +$92 +45%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $111 +$6 +5%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $6 +$4 +60%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $41 +$39 +96%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $86 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Jun 22 $50 +$30 +61%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $92 −$1 -1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $40 +$45 +113%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $54 +$46 +85%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 21 $6 $0 +5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $38 +$30 +79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,375 −$1,368 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $70 +$40 +56%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $80 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $86 +$55 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $69 +$54 +78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $480 +$320 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $55 +$55 +100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $142 +$115 +81%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $0 $0 +156%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $374 −$368 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $8 +$4 +52%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $56 +$54 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $122 +$55 +46%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $33 +$25 +75%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $128 +$107 +84%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $86 +$34 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 51¢ $4 7m
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 76¢ $18 14m
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? SELL Under 100¢ $28 33m
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 52¢ $48 38m
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 77¢ $70 55m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 43¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 42¢ $37 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? SELL Under 59¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $240 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 43¢ $34 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 53¢ $28 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 62¢ $55 2h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $48 2h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? SELL Under 100¢ $181 2h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 55¢ $17 3h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 55¢ $100 3h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? SELL Under 100¢ $80 3h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $38 4h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $12 4h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $41 4h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $53 5h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 52¢ $42 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $154 19h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $6 21h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $5 21h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $39 21h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $145 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $247 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $100 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 89¢ $55 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.35 · official $451.35 (match) · 1596 history records