Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EE 0xeefa…f400 other 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,629 (+11%) realized +$1,679 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$3,159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$371
7 days+$1,649
14 days+$1,547
30 days+$1,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$1,456
sports 10% +$515
world 8% −$477
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -5.3% -14.3% 39% 27% +4.7%
≤30d 84 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 27% +2.8%
≤90d 84 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 27% +2.8%
all 84 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 27% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 27% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 23% -7.1%
15% -31.6% 21% -16.1%
20% -38.3% 18% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$43 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$3,159
Realized+$1,679
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage13d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 55¢ 84¢ $869 $1,325 +$456 (+52%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $1,248 $987 −$261 (-21%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? No 86¢ 100¢ $424 $493 +$69 (+16%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? No 98¢ 100¢ $258 $264 +$6 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 72¢ 56¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? No 69¢ 68¢ $24 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+23%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-66%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $99 $1 −$98 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $408 +$87 +21%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $7 $0 +6%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $71 +$2 +3%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $37 −$37 -99%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $77 −$77 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $16 −$7 -44%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $231 −$227 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $23 +$77 +340%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $4 +$27 +650%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,080 −$480 -44%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $64 +$98 +152%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $63 +$383 +604%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $271 +$29 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $885 +$223 +25%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $350 −$344 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $76 −$74 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $49 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $6 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $195 −$179 -92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$40 +204%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $97 +$96 +99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $96 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $49 −$49 -99%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $182 +$324 +178%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,449 +$551 +38%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $46 −$14 -31%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$3 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $731 +$575 +79%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 69¢ $24 4m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 6m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 55¢ $557 10m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 14m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 15m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 16m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $49 17m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 18m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $49 19m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 72¢ $60 53m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 57¢ $213 54m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 55¢ $111 54m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $66 55m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $192 57m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $557 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $108 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $14 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $557 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $60 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,158.72 · official $3,158.73 (match) · 343 history records