Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xeefa…7a5a sports 1212 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$786 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%505W / 648L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day57.9pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$13
14 days−$16
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$734
other 11% −$26
crypto 1% −$10
world 0% +$12
politics 0% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -10.5% -19.0% 43% 42% -14.2%
≤30d 478 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 49% -13.4%
≤90d 1153 -12.0% -20.4% 44% 43% -21.4%
all 1153 -12.0% -20.4% 44% 43% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 43% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 41% -29.0%
15% -35.0% 38% -35.8%
20% -41.3% 35% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$786
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses505 / 648
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1153 / 1212
History coverage46d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 55¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+362%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 63¢ 64¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 80¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+261%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 54¢ 22¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-58%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+135%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 53¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 52¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 53¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 58¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 52¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-26? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 28? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +382%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 28? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 27 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -35%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +317%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$2 +81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +88%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $1 +$1 +91%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $2 +$3 +137%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $3 +$3 +95%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1 +$1 +78%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 +$1 +88%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 −$8 -112%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $1 +$1 +66%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $1 +$1 +74%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +84%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $1 +$1 +95%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +116%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$2 +88%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 09 $3 +$2 +72%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +81%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $7 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $1 50m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 53¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $1 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 52¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $1 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 51¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $3 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $2 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 55¢ $1 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $1 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 58¢ $1 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $1 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 39¢ $1 3h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 34¢ $1 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 32¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 60¢ $1 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ $1 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 48¢ $1 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $1 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $1 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $1 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.36 · official $55.37 (match) · 3500 history records