Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef00…1dbd world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
politics 14% $0
other 13% +$2
sports 13% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 4% −$1
economics 4% +$1
finance 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 53 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage296d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $66 +$2 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 −$4 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $68 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $24 +$1 +5%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 08 $1 $0 -5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 19 $1 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Sep 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Sep 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Michelle O’Neill win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $3 −$1 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $38 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 27¢ $21 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $25 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $19 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $19 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $44 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $44 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $30 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $1 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $8 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $21 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.67 · official $34.67 (match) · 198 history records