Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:24:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef01…1359 weather 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate45%93W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 37% $0
other 20% −$1
politics 18% −$7
crypto 12% −$2
economics 4% $0
sports 3% −$4
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
culture 2% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.0% -9.6% 42% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 77 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 163 -1.9% -11.2% 39% 0% -9.8%
all 206 -2.9% -12.2% 45% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 1% -10.0%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses93 / 113
Open positions1
Markets (closed)206 / 207
History coverage540d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 28? Jun 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 27 Jun 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C on June 27? Jun 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 27? Jun 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? Jun 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26? Jun 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun Jun 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 26? Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on June 2 Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Min Hyung-bae win the 2026 Jeonnam–Gwangju mayoral election? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 4? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 4? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 2? Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Adrian Mapp be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 2? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Yang Jeong-mu win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electio Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 27 SELL No 100¢ $26 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 27 BUY No 100¢ $26 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $9 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $17 20h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $18 21h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 27h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 29h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 30h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $27 35h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $27 36h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $22 38h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 39h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $18 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.29 · official $8.29 (match) · 481 history records