Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xef02…ded5 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$102 (-1%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$15
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$42
politics 15% −$4
economics 7% −$2
tech 4% −$1
sports 2% −$56
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 99 -8.4% -17.1% 10% 7% -10.0%
all 99 -8.4% -17.1% 10% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 7% -10.0%
10% -25.1% 6% -18.6%
15% -32.3% 4% -26.5%
20% -39.0% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage89d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $128 $129 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $684 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $257 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $91 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $269 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $427 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $229 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $215 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $229 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $435 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $224 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $434 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $712 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $222 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $227 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 3h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 3d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 4d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $128 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $45 16d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $45 16d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 17d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 17d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $35 18d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $35 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $34 20d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 20d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.61 · official $191.61 (match) · 272 history records