Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef02…d914 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-23%) realized −$12 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$42
sports 12% −$11
world 6% +$31
culture 5% −$5
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -20.5% -28.1% 20% 20% -36.0%
≤30d 10 -20.5% -28.1% 20% 20% -36.0%
≤90d 10 -20.5% -28.1% 20% 20% -36.0%
all 10 -20.5% -28.1% 20% 20% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 20% -36.0%
10% -35.0% 20% -42.1%
15% -41.3% 20% -47.7%
20% -47.0% 20% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $6 +$31 +515%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 1h
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 37¢ $5 4h
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $37 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 5d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.96 · official $17.96 (match) · 20 history records