Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef02…4f7e other 729 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,062 (-2%) realized −$1,062 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate57%410W / 304L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day98.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$26
14 days−$81
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$93
politics 30% −$76
economics 14% −$19
crypto 5% −$105
tech 2% −$8
weather 2% −$9
world 0% −$4
finance 0% $0
sports 0% −$9
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -14.7% -22.8% 44% 4% -11.1%
≤30d 714 -10.8% -19.3% 57% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 714 -10.8% -19.3% 57% 4% -10.0%
all 714 -10.8% -19.3% 57% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 4% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 1% -18.6%
15% -34.1% 1% -26.5%
20% -40.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$1,062
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses410 / 304
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions223
Markets (closed)714 / 729
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$86
Trades / day98.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 223 History 714 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes $11 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports qualify to MSI 2026? Yes 50¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+99%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Los Angeles Mad Drops win the Major League Pickleball End of Season Championship? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 50¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+60%)
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jack Grealish join Newcastle United? Yes 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+950%)
Will Jack Grealish join Tottenham? Yes 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+950%)
Will Jack Grealish join Aston Villa? Yes 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+950%)
Will Jack Grealish join RB Leipzig? Yes 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+939%)
Will Jack Grealish join Borussia Dortmund? Yes 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+939%)
Will Jack Grealish join Nottingham Forest? Yes 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+939%)
Will Jack Grealish join Brighton? Yes 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+939%)
Will Jack Grealish stay at Manchester City? Yes 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+939%)
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Manchester United? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Rafael Leao join Manchester United? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jack Grealish join Napoli? Yes 49¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+929%)
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Inter Milan? Yes 50¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+850%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Pascal Groß be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Emiliano Buendía score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the No. 69 Team WRT win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bad Bunny be the second most streamed Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Thibaut Courtois be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Spider" be said 4+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in Jun 11 $135 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -18%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 11 $22 −$1 -4%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $51 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Graham Platner win between 80% and 85% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 10 $0 $0 +92%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 85¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Cape Verde win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Ayyoub Bouaddi win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 94¢ $1 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $3 25h
Will the Los Angeles Kings be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Detroit Red Wings be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Washington Capitals be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Seattle Kraken be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the San Jose Sharks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the New York Islanders be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Nashville Predators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Chicago Blackhawks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Boston Bruins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the New York Rangers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Ch SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL Yes $0 25h
Will the Winnipeg Jets be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL Yes $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.13 · official $46.10 (match) · 3500 history records