Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef03…1fbf weather 967 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$708 (+2%) realized +$710 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate79%766W / 199L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$39
14 days+$46
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% +$309
world 7% +$378
crypto 4% −$50
other 4% +$22
sports 1% −$21
tech 0% −$10
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.1% -8.5% 96% 4% -9.0%
≤30d 132 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 2% -9.0%
≤90d 319 -24.1% -31.3% 72% 6% -12.8%
all 965 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 28% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 28% -8.1%
10% -18.5% 13% -16.9%
15% -26.4% 8% -24.9%
20% -33.6% 6% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized+$710
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses766 / 199
Open positions2
Markets (closed)965 / 967
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 965 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $259 $260 +$1 (+0%)
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $444 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $446 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 20 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 1 Jun 20 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? Jun 20 $446 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 20 $446 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 18 $446 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Jun 18 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $251 −$12 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $198 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $192 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $392 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $197 +$2 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $79 +$15 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $392 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $296 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $195 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 09 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 8? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 08 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 08 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? Jun 07 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 6 Jun 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6? Jun 07 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 6? Jun 07 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on June 6? Jun 07 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 06 $141 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 91¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $151 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $108 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $197 22h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $196 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $241 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $196 26h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $248 26h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $126 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June BUY No 100¢ $249 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $42 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $155 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $244 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $196 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $234 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $196 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $86 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $163 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $167 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $198 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.80 · official $302.75 (match) · 3500 history records