Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EF 0xef0a…01a2 sports 41 markets active 1d ago coverage 213d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$148 (+21%) realized +$148 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$51
sports 37% +$200
world 2% +$14
politics 2% −$13
tech 1% −$7
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +83.5% +66.0% 92% 92% +68.4%
≤30d 15 +59.0% +43.9% 80% 80% +50.2%
≤90d 29 +44.4% +30.7% 72% 72% +51.7%
all 40 +29.2% +16.9% 65% 65% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 65% +9.7%
10% +5.7% 65% -0.8%
15% -4.5% 65% -10.4%
20% -13.9% 65% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage213d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MLP St. Petersburg: Orlando Squeeze vs Miami Pickleball Club Miami Pickleball Club 50¢ 50¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $8 +$8 +97%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Fernandez Jun 10 $5 +$5 +100%
Chisinau (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Jecan/Pavel Jun 10 $6 +$6 +97%
Libema Open (Doubles): Griekspoor/Zandschulp vs Cash/Tracy Jun 10 $6 +$6 +100%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Massey vs. Clarke (Cruiserweight, Main) Jun 10 $6 +$6 +97%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 10 $7 +$7 +100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 10 $8 +$8 +97%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Wh Jun 10 $11 +$11 +100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 10 $11 +$11 +100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $12 +$12 +100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 10 $12 +$12 +97%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Cutler vs. Sutton (Middleweight, Main) Jun 10 $12 +$12 +100%
ITF Toyama: Natsuho Arakawa vs Yui Chikaraishi May 22 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Bol: Dora Miskovic vs Tena Lukas May 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Manresa vs. Basket Zaragoza May 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 9 be between 2,200,0 May 11 $6 +$6 +100%
CB Murcia vs. Basquet Girona May 11 $8 +$8 +100%
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Islamabad United - Who win May 11 $11 +$11 +100%
Diamond Dolphins vs. Utsunomiya Brex May 11 $11 +$11 +100%
Hiroshima Dragonflies vs. Toyama Grouses May 11 $11 +$11 +100%
T20 Easter Womens Cup: Uganda vs USA May 11 $13 +$13 +100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump post "Peace Through Strength" on Truth Social this week? Apr 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump post "Ceasefire" on Truth Social this week? Apr 02 $14 +$14 +100%
Lamar Cardinals vs. Houston Christian Huskies Apr 02 $19 +$20 +103%
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. SKA St. Petersburg Apr 02 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March Mar 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 12 $36 +$35 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 31 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 25 $46 +$44 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Dec 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 18 $34 +$33 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 11 $36 +$35 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Dec 05 $28 +$27 +96%
Solana Up or Down - November 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Nov 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MLP St. Petersburg: Orlando Squeeze vs Miami Pickleball Club BUY Miami Pickleball Club 50¢ $11 34h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Toronto Marlies 50¢ $8 4d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 50¢ $7 6d
Libema Open (Doubles): Griekspoor/Zandschulp vs Cash/Tracy BUY Griekspoor/Zandschulp 50¢ $6 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $11 11d
Zuffa Boxing 7: Cutler vs. Sutton (Middleweight, Main) BUY Cutler 50¢ $12 13d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Olympiacos B.C. 50¢ $12 15d
Zuffa Boxing 7: Massey vs. Clarke (Cruiserweight, Main) BUY Clarke 50¢ $6 18d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY KT Wiz 50¢ $7 20d
Chisinau (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Jecan/Pavel BUY Jecan/Pavel 50¢ $6 22d
ITF Toyama: Natsuho Arakawa vs Yui Chikaraishi BUY Natsuho Arakawa $0 25d
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $8 25d
ITF Bol: Dora Miskovic vs Tena Lukas BUY Dora Miskovic 50¢ $13 27d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky BUY Minnesota Lynx 50¢ $12 29d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky BUY Minnesota Lynx 50¢ $0 29d
Manresa vs. Basket Zaragoza BUY Basket Zaragoza 50¢ $6 32d
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Wh BUY New Zealand 50¢ $0 34d
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Wh BUY New Zealand 50¢ $11 34d
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Fernandez BUY Blinkova 50¢ $5 36d
CB Murcia vs. Basquet Girona BUY CB Murcia 50¢ $8 41d
Hiroshima Dragonflies vs. Toyama Grouses BUY Toyama Grouses 50¢ $0 48d
Hiroshima Dragonflies vs. Toyama Grouses BUY Toyama Grouses 50¢ $11 48d
Diamond Dolphins vs. Utsunomiya Brex BUY Utsunomiya Brex 50¢ $0 52d
Diamond Dolphins vs. Utsunomiya Brex BUY Utsunomiya Brex 50¢ $11 52d
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Islamabad United - Who win BUY Rawalpindi Pindiz 50¢ $11 56d
T20 Easter Womens Cup: Uganda vs USA BUY Uganda 50¢ $13 63d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 9 be between 2,200,0 BUY No 50¢ $6 69d
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes $0 72d
Will Trump post "Peace Through Strength" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 75d
Will Trump post "Ceasefire" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.75 · official $10.75 (match) · 71 history records