Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef0b…951a other 2491 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$279 (-5%) realized −$281 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%989W / 1543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$203
14 days−$156
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$152
sports 46% +$45
world 1% +$14
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -55.9% -60.1% 22% 22% -62.4%
≤30d 368 -24.3% -31.5% 38% 38% -36.1%
≤90d 1094 -14.7% -22.8% 37% 37% -21.7%
all 2532 -5.9% -14.9% 39% 39% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 39% -15.2%
10% -23.0% 38% -23.3%
15% -30.5% 37% -30.7%
20% -37.3% 35% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses989 / 1543
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions18
Markets (closed)2532 / 2491
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 2532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+52%)
Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 44¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Parma win on 2025-10-25? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-10-31? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-01-22? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Girona win on 2025-10-31? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Espanyol end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-19? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-01-16? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CA River Plate end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Getafe vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-11-09? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-01? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-20? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nigeria vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Aldosivi win on 2026-01-28? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Qairat FK vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chile win on 2025-11-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA San Martín de San Juan vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2025-10-29? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-10-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Granada CF vs. SD Eibar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-25? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-02-01? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-23? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-12-11? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2025-10-31? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-25? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $1 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $1 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $1 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 50¢ $1 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $1 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $1 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 22h
England vs. Croatia: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 50¢ $1 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 50¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.92 · official $30.88 (match) · 3500 history records