Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef0d…8733 other 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,260 (-19%) realized −$7,790 · open +$530
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate13%23W / 155L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$2,271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$872
7 days−$565
14 days+$697
30 days−$1,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$2,690
politics 2% −$64
world 1% −$336
sports 0% −$262
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -28.1% -35.0% 15% 15% -26.9%
≤30d 80 -30.0% -36.7% 12% 12% -17.5%
≤90d 178 -18.0% -25.8% 13% 12% -20.8%
all 178 -18.0% -25.8% 13% 12% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 12% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 12% -28.4%
15% -39.4% 10% -35.3%
20% -45.3% 10% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,010 vs −$181 · ×5.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$2,271
Realized−$7,790
Unrealized+$530
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses23 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)178 / 186
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ 62¢ $201 $1,230 +$1,029 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ 26¢ $210 $530 +$320 (+152%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $120 $125 +$5 (+4%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $173 $120 −$53 (-31%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $92 $89 −$2 (-2%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $78 $73 −$5 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $230 $71 −$159 (-69%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $244 $28 −$216 (-89%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $30 $4 −$26 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $220 $1 −$219 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $144 $1 −$143 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $783 −$790 -101%
Will Sholdon Daniels be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 13 $0 $0 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $187 −$7 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $400 −$70 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $61 −$59 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $247 −$240 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $180 −$179 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $362 −$358 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $334 +$1,666 +498%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $271 −$149 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $91 −$87 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $151 −$144 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $64 −$63 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $89 +$58 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $215 +$735 +342%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $346 −$120 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $248 −$244 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $174 −$88 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $120 −$119 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $314 +$1,586 +505%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $266 +$185 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $299 −$292 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $170 −$165 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $263 −$260 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $402 −$400 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $73 +$25 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $308 −$304 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $267 −$264 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $294 −$284 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $168 −$164 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $363 −$362 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $384 −$367 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $64 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 15¢ $72 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $125 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 34h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 34h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 34h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 34h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 34h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $59 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 37h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,271.43 · official $2,271.63 (match) · 3500 history records