Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef0e…eb96 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
other 19% +$1
politics 14% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 44% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 0% -9.6%
all 43 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage256d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $14 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $19 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $58 −$2 -4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $29 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $21 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 18 $3 $0 -16%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Oct 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 17 $2 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 17 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 12 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 09 $24 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $36 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $11 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records