Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef0f…d1ca crypto 488 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$309 (-8%) realized −$309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%217W / 270L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day62.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$146
14 days−$548
30 days−$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$523
other 6% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.8% -19.3% 51% 39% -26.4%
≤30d 487 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 43% -23.5%
≤90d 487 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 43% -23.5%
all 487 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 43% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 43% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 41% -30.8%
15% -34.2% 40% -37.5%
20% -40.6% 39% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses217 / 270
Open positions1
Markets (closed)487 / 488
History coverage14d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day62.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 245 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET Jun 22 $160 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $79 −$49 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$40 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $27 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $131 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $68 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$31 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$80 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$20 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $49 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.65 · official $47.65 (match) · 1086 history records