Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xef10…0b43 crypto 730 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$227,867 (+89%) realized +$224,223 · open +$3,644
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%426W / 296L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13,615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22,095
other 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 +21.3% +9.7% 65% 60% -4.0%
≤30d 640 +3.6% -6.3% 55% 50% -6.7%
≤90d 722 +9.6% -0.9% 59% 52% -2.2%
all 722 +9.6% -0.9% 59% 52% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 52% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 49% -11.6%
15% -19.0% 47% -20.1%
20% -26.9% 46% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$227 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$13,615
Realized+$224,223
Unrealized+$3,644
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses426 / 296
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)722 / 730
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$350
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 722 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 54¢ 86¢ $3,684 $5,847 +$2,163 (+59%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $4,006 $4,282 +$276 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Down 48¢ 72¢ $1,680 $2,519 +$839 (+50%)
Will XRP reach $1.30 June 15-21? No 30¢ 83¢ $197 $547 +$350 (+177%)
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? No 86¢ 97¢ $171 $194 +$23 (+14%)
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 100¢ $139 $158 +$18 (+13%)
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $86 $60 −$26 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $1,268 +$1,258 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $1,569 +$1,616 +103%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$12 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $1,178 +$1,262 +107%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,520 +$480 +19%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,781 +$219 +8%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,835 +$165 +6%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,799 +$201 +7%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,835 +$165 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $174 −$168 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $490 −$473 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +93%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $595 −$544 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $355 +$360 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$41 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $81 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $801 −$772 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $1,725 −$1,662 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $1,296 +$1,382 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$16 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $666 −$642 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1,813 +$1,770 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $729 +$735 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $431 +$402 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$32 +105%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,300 +$398 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $208 +$207 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $209 +$217 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,678 +$227 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $445 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1,296 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1,268 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $274 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1,295 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1,178 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $174 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $490 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 10h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 12h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 12h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $86 13h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 13h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $446 13h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 14h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 14h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY No 53¢ $13 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 18h
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? BUY No 76¢ $12 19h
Will XRP reach $1.30 June 15-21? BUY No 63¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $355 21h
Will XRP reach $1.30 June 15-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $39 22h
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $2,835 23h
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $2,835 23h
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $2,520 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,614.93 · official $13,606.52 (match) · 3500 history records