Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xef10…f09b crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%45W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$7
crypto 8% +$1
politics 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
sports 0% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 -0.4% -9.9% 82% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses45 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage539d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? Apr 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? Oct 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jul 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 01 $2 $0 +2%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 01 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $6,062 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4000 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $35 $0 +1%
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? Feb 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 19 $18 $0 +2%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Feb 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 23 $10 −$3 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 61d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 92d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 123d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 123d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 123d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 150d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $22 181d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 182d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $17 212d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 212d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 99¢ $30 243d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 273d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $28 273d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 300d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 301d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $27 303d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 333d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $25 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 363d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $12 364d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.96 · official $47.96 (match) · 113 history records