Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef11…a7a1 weather 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$130 (-6%) realized −$136 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%48W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$59
14 days−$135
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$119
sports 7% +$1
crypto 1% −$16
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -10.9% -19.3% 62% 35% -13.4%
≤30d 87 -12.8% -21.1% 55% 39% -16.6%
≤90d 87 -12.8% -21.1% 55% 39% -16.6%
all 87 -12.8% -21.1% 55% 39% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 39% -16.6%
10% -28.7% 28% -24.6%
15% -35.5% 17% -31.9%
20% -41.9% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses48 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)87 / 92
History coverage21d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 22? No 96¢ 99¢ $187 $193 +$6 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23? No 96¢ 97¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24? No 78¢ 80¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? No 92¢ 92¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 22 $21 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 22 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 22 $243 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $213 +$23 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $70 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$5 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $14 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $216 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $32 −$25 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $43 −$28 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$10 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$7 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $18 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $26 −$23 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$20 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$3 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $10 11m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $11 12m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 78¢ $16 21m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $29 27m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $23 35m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 100¢ $16 35m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $82 35m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 51m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 52m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $188 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $249 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $243 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $60 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 95¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $73 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? SELL No 83¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 86¢ $16 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? SELL No 88¢ $16 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.53 · official $295.28 (match) · 251 history records