Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef11…26eb crypto 1014 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$760 (-0%) realized −$760 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate79%802W / 212L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$25
14 days−$255
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 225 -1.4% -10.8% 95% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 853 -2.3% -11.6% 86% 9% -10.1%
all 1014 -3.2% -12.4% 79% 15% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 15% -10.2%
10% -20.8% 14% -18.8%
15% -28.4% 12% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$36 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$760
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses802 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1014 / 1014
History coverage98d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1014 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2674 history records