Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef17…1ef0 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$125 (-17%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$20
other 7% −$15
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 42% -9.2%
≤30d 26 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 42% -9.2%
≤90d 26 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 42% -9.2%
all 26 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 42% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 42% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 42% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 42% -25.9%
20% -34.2% 38% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$19 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage5d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $253 +$164 +65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$16 +114%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $117 −$117 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $114 +$76 +67%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $19 +$20 +103%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$2 +180%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $253 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $27 18h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $9 19h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $9 19h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $9 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $6 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $51 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 20h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $31 23h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 23h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 24h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $10 40h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 40h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $10 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $19 42h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 46h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $19 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $19 47h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 25¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $19 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $77 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $76 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.45 (match) · 65 history records