Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef1c…b1aa crypto 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%84W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
other 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 25 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 84 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses84 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage243d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $112 $112 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 10? Jun 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $112 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? Jun 04 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will Tesla dip to $248 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? May 04 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? Apr 19 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 08 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $103 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 12? Mar 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 4? Mar 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 03 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Feb 28 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 25? Feb 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? Feb 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 14? Feb 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 8? Feb 08 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Feb 04 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on February 3 Feb 04 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $91 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $92 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $6 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $112 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $108 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $112 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $109 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $6 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $96 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $98 55d
Will Tesla dip to $248 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $102 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $104 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $103 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $104 74d
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $107 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $103 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $103 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $106 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $101 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $104 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $101 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $102 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $102 98d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? BUY No 99¢ $3 99d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $2 99d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $107 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.02 · official $112.02 (match) · 169 history records