Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef1d…3080 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$105 (-5%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%40W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$43
other 4% −$1
crypto 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -3.2% -12.5% 48% 47% -13.1%
≤30d 83 -3.2% -12.5% 48% 47% -13.1%
≤90d 83 -3.2% -12.5% 48% 47% -13.1%
all 83 -3.2% -12.5% 48% 47% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 47% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 41% -21.4%
15% -28.5% 31% -29.0%
20% -35.5% 24% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 43
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$12 +61%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $34 −$2 -7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $108 +$26 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $17 +$10 +60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 +$5 +42%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $51 −$4 -7%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $27 +$7 +27%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $16 −$5 -34%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $30 −$14 -47%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 −$1 -5%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $51 −$19 -37%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$10 +89%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $41 +$14 +34%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $50 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $12 +$7 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $16 −$1 -7%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $23 −$7 -30%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $77 −$22 -28%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $17 −$2 -10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $7 +$11 +165%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $21 +$16 +78%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $50 −$16 -32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $8 +$13 +165%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $17 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$8 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$11 -56%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $34 −$3 -8%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $27 +$7 +26%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $57 −$30 -52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$10 +20%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $38 +$9 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 +$9 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $13 +$8 +63%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 −$17 -44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +116%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$27 +107%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $44 −$9 -20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $25 +$10 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 57m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $33 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 71¢ $32 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $34 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $134 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $108 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $28 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $17 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $15 4h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 86¢ $47 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $35 5h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 92¢ $51 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 78¢ $27 7h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Fiona Ferro 69¢ $18 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $11 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 47¢ $11 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 69¢ $16 9h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Emilien Demanet 43¢ $16 10h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Emilien Demanet 79¢ $30 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $30 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $32 11h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 51¢ $32 11h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $30 13h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $21 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.80 · official $19.80 (match) · 164 history records