Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef1e…b5f4 crypto 55 markets active 9h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% +$26
crypto 48% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -13.9% -22.1% 52% 34% -10.8%
≤30d 50 -13.9% -22.1% 52% 34% -10.8%
≤90d 50 -13.9% -22.1% 52% 34% -10.8%
all 50 -13.9% -22.1% 52% 34% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 34% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 24% -19.3%
15% -36.4% 16% -27.1%
20% -42.6% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$11 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$6 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 73¢ $59 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $48 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 86¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 72¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 76¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 54¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.01 · official $8.01 (match) · 171 history records