Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EF 0xef21…ac34 sports 11 markets active 3d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$182 (-3%) realized −$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$581per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$167
other 45% +$64
world 4% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.3% -30.6% 45% 45% -14.1%
≤30d 11 -23.3% -30.6% 45% 45% -14.1%
≤90d 11 -23.3% -30.6% 45% 45% -14.1%
all 11 -23.3% -30.6% 45% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 45% -14.1%
10% -37.2% 45% -22.4%
15% -43.3% 36% -29.9%
20% -48.9% 18% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$339 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$581
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $307 +$185 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $227 −$222 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $990 +$480 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $712 +$224 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $598 −$253 -42%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $585 −$505 -86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $474 −$295 -62%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $207 −$202 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $929 +$499 +54%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $571 −$559 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $795 +$322 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $307 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $227 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $936 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $990 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $345 3d
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 7¢ $80 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $598 3d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $585 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $712 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $178 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $207 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $474 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,429 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $929 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $571 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $683 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $112 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records