Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef22…441d weather 554 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,494 (+29%) realized +$2,489 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%301W / 248L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$86
14 days+$224
30 days+$876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$2,343
other 1% +$27
sports 0% +$13
politics 0% −$12
world 0% −$12
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +25.3% +13.4% 64% 49% -3.1%
≤30d 163 +54.2% +39.5% 53% 44% +12.6%
≤90d 344 +44.7% +30.9% 56% 47% +12.5%
all 549 +52.3% +37.8% 55% 45% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.8% 45% +15.0%
10% +24.6% 40% +4.0%
15% +12.6% 35% -6.0%
20% +1.5% 30% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$2,489
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses301 / 248
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)549 / 554
History coverage173d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? Yes 50¢ 91¢ $16 $29 +$13 (+83%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 21? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+273%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $14 +$9 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $307 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$6 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +137%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $21 +$11 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$14 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $73 +$27 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$6 +809%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$8 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $195 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$3 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$13 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$4 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $9 −$8 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$9 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$33 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 86¢ $38 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $38 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $99 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.79 · official $75.13 (match) · 2964 history records